The 43rd Kinder Houston Area Survey: Houston of Tomorrow

MAY 20, 2024 The 43rd Kinder Houston Area Survey Houston of Tomorrow Acknowledgments The 43rd Kinder Houston Area Survey could not happen without thousands of Houston-area residents taking the time and effort to be part of the Greater Houston Community Panel. These individuals share with us their attitudes, values, and experiences, providing invaluable insights into their lived experiences. It is because of them and through them that we are able to learn about and tell the story of Houston. May 2024 Rice University Kinder Institute for Urban Research 6100 Main Street—MS 208, Houston, Texas 77005 Telephone: 713-348-4132 kinder.rice.edu For more information, contact kinder@rice.edu. Copyright ©2024 by Rice University Kinder Institute for Urban Research. All rights reserved. Contributors: Daniel Potter, Alec Tobin, Anna Glanzer, Joy Njeh, Katherine Perez, Karen Pren, Lee Williams, Aaron Niznik, Lauren Dawson, and Matt Dulin Suggested citation: Potter, D., Tobin, A., Glanzer, A., Njeh, J., Perez, K., Pren, K., Williams, L., Niznik, A., Dawson, L. & Dulin, M. (2024). “The 43rd Kinder Houston Area Survey: Houston of Tomorrow.” Kinder Institute for Urban Research, Rice University. DOI: https://doi.org/10.25611/52NK-JD67 “ The story of Houston is that we are there first. ... By 2050, all of America will look like Houston looks today. This is where the American future is going to be worked out. ” — Stephen Klineberg, founder of the Kinder Houston Area Survey and co-founder of the Kinder Institute for Urban Research Introduction 3 Methodology 4 Houston Past and Present 6 Crime and safety 6 Housing 10 Economy 11 Houston-area identities 14 Public transportation and public education 16 Houston of Tomorrow 18 Climate change 18 Energy transition 20 Artificial intelligence 23 Looking to the Future 27 Concluding Thoughts 30 Table of Contents THE 43RD KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY: HOUSTON OF TOMORROW1 CONTENTS Map 1: Greater Houston Community Panel neighborhood areas 5 Figure 1: Crime and safety, cost of housing, and the economy are considered the “biggest problems” facing the Houston area today. 7 Map 2: The Houston area’s “biggest problem” varied across Harris County neighborhoods. 7 Figure 2: Perception of crime and safety as the “biggest problem” declined steadily until 2021, even when crime rates rose slightly after 2018. 8 Map 3: More than 20% of residents in six neighborhood areas rated the police as doing a “poor” job, while more than 20% of residents in 12 neighborhoods said police were doing a “worse” job protecting and serving them than other neighborhoods. 9 Figure 3: Corporations, landlords, and neighborhood opposition were the most commonly cited causes of affordability challenges in Houston. 10 Figure 4: Non-renters tended to cite corporations and investors for their effect on housing affordability; renters placed more blame on landlords. 11 Figure 5: Compared to 2020, more than twice as many Houston-area residents reported their finances have worsened in the past few years. 12 Figure 6: The percentage of Houston-area residents who do not have enough savings to cover a $400 emergency is at its highest recorded level. 13 Figure 7: Since 2016, Houstonians have been much less likely to see those receiving government help as “taking advantage of the system.” 13 Figure 8: Since 2020, Houston-area residents tend to disagree that Black people and other minorities have the same opportunities as White people in the U.S. 14 Figure 9: The percentage of Houston-area residents identifying as Republican has steadily declined since the early 1990s. 15 Figure 10: The percentage of religiously unaffiliated Houston-area residents has steadily risen in the past 15 years. 15 Figure 11: The percentage of Houston-area residents using mass transit at least once a week varies by demographics and income levels. 17 Figure 12: Support for greater investment in public schools has been increasing since 2005 and remains at an all-time high. 17 Figure 13: Over half of households earning below $50,000 predict negative impacts from climate change on their health, finances, and communities. 19 Map 4: Residents’ belief that climate change will negatively impact the quality of life in their neighborhood varied across the city and county. 21 Figure 14: About 7 in 10 Houstonians say corporations and governments should be doing more to address climate change. 21 Figure 15: Clear majorities — young adults in particular — widely agree the Houston region should be a leader in the energy transition. 22 Figure 16: About 3 in 4 Houston-area residents are “worried,” “very worried,” or “extremely worried” about the isolation of the Texas power grid and its reliability. 23 Figure 17: Personal use of advanced artificial intelligence tools such as ChatGPT is limited across age groups, especially older adults. 24 Figure 18: Houston-area workers in leisure and hospitality and professional and business services are more likely to anticipate a major impact from AI. 25 Figure 19: Majorities of workers in some industries are not worried about losing their job because of AI or automation. 26 Figure 20: Across every demographic and income level, Houstonians express more excitement than worry about their future. 28 Figure 21: Fewer Houstonians see crime as an issue 20 years from now, while housing remains a long-term concern. 29 Index of Figures THE 43RD KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY: HOUSTON OF TOMORROW2 INDEX OF FIGURES T he year 2036 will be Houston’s bicentennial celebration — 200 years as a city — and many of the youth who will graduate from high school that year began kindergarten this past fall. When the city enters its third century, the social, political, and economic conditions present today will almost cer- tainly have changed. The next decade will likely find Houston’s economy in the midst of transformation, as artificial intelligence and related technologies gain more widespread adop- tion. Digital fluency will become even more valuable, as many workers will need to adapt to new tools and technologies across a variety of industries. Education will remain a critical determinant of who is able to prosper economically, though the importance of a typical college degree may diminish if employers tar- get skills or certifications that can be learned in high school

century, the social, political, and economic conditions present today will almost cer- tainly have changed. The next decade will likely find Houston’s economy in the midst of transformation, as artificial intelligence and related technologies gain more widespread adop- tion. Digital fluency will become even more valuable, as many workers will need to adapt to new tools and technologies across a variety of industries. Education will remain a critical determinant of who is able to prosper economically, though the importance of a typical college degree may diminish if employers tar- get skills or certifications that can be learned in high school computer science classrooms or through spe- cialized courses untethered to a traditional university. An additional catalyst of change to Houston’s econo- my will be the global energy transition toward renew- able and carbon-neutral sources. Because of the city’s legacy in the oil and gas industry — which created one of the biggest metropolitan economies in the United States — it is uniquely positioned to be a leader in the transition. The region has the opportunity to reaffirm its status as the energy capital of the world, whereas failing to do so could risk a painful economic contrac- Introduction THE 43RD KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY: HOUSTON OF TOMORROW3 INTRODUCTION tion. Beyond the economic incentives, making this transition is imperative for the region as it grapples with the impacts of climate change, and the existential threats posed by sea-level rise and intensifying storms. As Houston evolves, its population is expected to continue to grow. According to one estimate from the Houston-Galveston Area Council, the metropolitan area could bloom to 9.6 million residents by 2040. 1 That represents a nearly 35% increase in population relative to its 2020 level. With this future in mind, the year 2024 serves as an in- flection point: The city of Houston has a new mayor for the first time in nearly a decade, an impending national election could define the course of the country for another generation, and uncertainties that previously existed in some distant future — such as the effects of climate change, the transition toward new energy sources, and the rise of artificial intelligence — are be- coming realities that must be contended with now. With so much happening in the social, political, and economic domains that will impact the future of the city, the theme of the 43rd annual Kinder Houston Area Survey — which provides an unparalleled look at current conditions and where residents see the region going — is “Houston of Tomorrow.” The results of the survey show Houstonians are excited about the next 10 to 20 years and how emerging opportunities may reshape their lives, careers, and communities, while also recognizing the challenges that must be ad- dressed for this potential to be realized. 1 2040 Regional Transportation Plan Demographics | Houston-Galveston Area Council (H-GAC). (n.d.). Retrieved January 19, 2024, from https://www.h-gac.com/ regional-transportation-plan/2040/demographics Methodology Findings for this report come from the 43rd annual Kinder Houston Area Survey administered to the Greater Houston Community Panel (GHCP), a collab- oration with the UTHealth School of Public Health in which a scientifically selected group of Harris County adults completes multiple surveys throughout the year. On Jan. 22, 2024, a total of 7,610 panel members were invited to complete the Kinder Houston Area Survey. Invitations to the online survey were sent via email and text messaging. In addition to the initial invitation, follow-up emails and text messages were sent to en- courage panel members to complete the survey, which remained open for about four weeks, closing on Feb. 16, 2024. It received 5,376 responses, giving it a response rate of 70.6% and reaching the highest number of par- ticipants in its history. Of the 5,376 respondents, 20 were missing key de- mographic data, so they could not be included in the calculation of the sampling weight. Survey responses were weighted to reflect the county’s population in terms of race, ethnicity, age, gender, educational attainment, and homeownership, resulting in a final analytic sample of 5,356, where 52% were female and 48% were male; 8% were Asian, 19% were Black, 42% were Hispanic, and 27% were White; and the average age was 42. Because of the sampling techniques used, when weighted, estimates from the survey are repre- sentative of all adults in Harris County. Throughout the report, findings that are said to reflect “Houston- area residents” are inclusive of all of Harris County, including the city of Houston. In addition to providing estimates for the whole county, the number of respondents in the GHCP also allowed researchers to conduct an analysis by neigh- borhood areas. In total, 30 distinct neighborhood areas were constructed with aggregated GHCP data to compare results across smaller areas of Harris County (Map 1). The areas were created using spatial clustering methods. A supplemental document further explaining the creation of the neighborhood areas is available at https://kinder.rice.edu/houstonsurvey2024. THE 43RD KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY: HOUSTON OF TOMORROW4 INTRODUCTION Area nameArea name 1Greater Tomball & Klein16Memorial Park & Uptown 2Aldine Northwest & Cypress Creek17The Heights & Lazybrook 3Greenspoint & IAH18Greater Northshore & Galena Park 4Greater Crosby & Huffman19Greater Sharpstown 5Greater Cypress South & Copperfield20Bellaire & River Oaks 6Greater Jersey Village21Second Ward & Lawndale 7Greater Waller & Katy22Alief & Brays Oaks 8Greater Spring Branch23Braeswood, Willow Meadows & Meyerland 9Oak Forest, Inwood & Fairbanks24Downtown & Midtown 10Greater Spring & Aldine West25Sunnyside & South Union 11Northside & Eastex26Greater Golfcrest & Gulfgate 12Greater East Little York27Pasadena & Hobby 13Greater Baytown & Sheldon28Five Corners & Minnetex 14Eldridge & West Oaks29South Belt & Ellington 15Memorial & Briar Forest30La Porte & Clear Lake 44 77 11 1313 55 3030 88 66 33 22 2727 2828 1212 1010 1111 99 1818 2222 1919 1515 2929 1414 2020 2626 2525 1616 1717 2121 2424 2323 4 7 1 13 5 30 8 6 3 2 27 28 12 10 11 9 18 22 19 15 29 14 20 26 25 16 17 21 24 23 010205 Miles GREATER HOUSTON COMMUNITY PANEL NEIGHBORHOOD AREAS MAP

Golfcrest & Gulfgate 12Greater East Little York27Pasadena & Hobby 13Greater Baytown & Sheldon28Five Corners & Minnetex 14Eldridge & West Oaks29South Belt & Ellington 15Memorial & Briar Forest30La Porte & Clear Lake 44 77 11 1313 55 3030 88 66 33 22 2727 2828 1212 1010 1111 99 1818 2222 1919 1515 2929 1414 2020 2626 2525 1616 1717 2121 2424 2323 4 7 1 13 5 30 8 6 3 2 27 28 12 10 11 9 18 22 19 15 29 14 20 26 25 16 17 21 24 23 010205 Miles GREATER HOUSTON COMMUNITY PANEL NEIGHBORHOOD AREAS MAP 1 THE 43RD KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY: HOUSTON OF TOMORROW5 INTRODUCTION S ince its inception in 1982, the Kinder Houston Area Survey has asked residents hundreds of standard questions at various intervals to see how attitudes, perspectives, and experiences in the Houston area have changed or stayed the same. To explore Houston’s past and better understand its pres- ent, a series of these “legacy” questions were fielded again in 2024, including one that has appeared on every survey since 1982, which asks residents to name the biggest problem facing the Houston area today. This year, for Houston and Harris County overall, the three most commonly reported biggest problems were: 1) crime and safety, 2) housing affordability, and 3) the economy (Figure 1). Crime and safety was the most commonly cited “big- gest problem” in 19 of the 30 neighborhood areas in the county, while housing affordability was the most commonly identified in seven neighborhood areas (Map 2). The economy was the most commonly cited biggest problem in two neighborhood areas, and traf- fic and infrastructure were each identified as the most common in one neighborhood area apiece. Crime and safety More than 1 in 4 Houston-area residents cited crime and safety as the biggest problem facing the area, making it the most commonly reported concern for the second straight year. It has been a top issue Houston Past and Present THE 43RD KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY: HOUSTON OF TOMORROW6 HOUSTON PAST AND PRESENT 28% 27% 20% 22% 26% 21% 32% 9% 10% 8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2015201620172018201920202021202220232024 Crime and safety Housing affordability Economy Traffic Infrastructure 010205 Miles Housing aordabilityCrime & safetyEconomyInfrastructureTrac What is the biggest problem facing Houston today? Note: The chart includes the five most frequent categorized responses to the open-ended question, "What would you say is the biggest problem facing people in the Houston area today?" The other categories are pollution and the environment (5% in 2024), social group tensions (2%), city government and taxes (2%), schools and children (1%), public health and health care (1%), and other (3%). THE HOUSTON AREA’S “BIGGEST PROBLEM” VARIED ACROSS HARRIS COUNTY NEIGHBORHOODS. MAP 2 CRIME AND SAFETY, COST OF HOUSING, AND THE ECONOMY ARE CONSIDERED THE “BIGGEST PROBLEMS” FACING THE HOUSTON AREA TODAY. FIGURE 1 THE 43RD KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY: HOUSTON OF TOMORROW7 HOUSTON PAST AND PRESENT among Houstonians for decades. Between 1992 and 1997, more than half of Kinder Houston Area Survey respondents cited crime and safety as the biggest problem. In fact, exactly 30 years ago — in the 1994 survey — more than 3 out of 4 residents flagged crime as the biggest problem. In comparison, 3 out of 4 residents in this year’s survey identified something other than crime as the region’s central problem. Still, crime and safety was the most commonly identified biggest problem, and the number of residents listing it as the biggest problem has been on the rise since 2020. At odds with the increase in residents listing crime as the biggest problem is the fact that the Houston area has seen a drop in rates of several major types of crime, including homicide and sexual assault, according to data compiled by the Harris County Office of County Administration. In addition, the city and county’s total reported crime rate, which includes homicide, sexual assault, assault, 2 auto theft, burglary, robbery, and larceny, was lower in 2023 (4,146 incidents per 100,000 residents) than it was in 2015 (4,288 incidents per 100,000 residents) (Figure 2). The overall decline in crime rate does not mean that all crimes have been on the decline across these years; for example, the number of auto thefts per 100,000 residents increased almost 36% from 2015 to 2023. While concern about crime and safety remains high, it does not mean that Houstonians are dissatisfied with local law enforcement agencies. While 16% of resi- dents said local law enforcement was doing a “poor” job serving and protecting their neighborhood, an- other 48% gave them a “fair” rating, 30% gave them a “good” rating, and 6% gave them an “excellent” rating. 2 For purposes of its analysis, the Harris County Office of County Administration defined assault as “aggravated assault,” meaning an unlawful attack by one person upon another for the purpose of inflicting severe or aggravated bodily injury. This type of assault is usually accompanied by the use of a weapon or by means likely to produce death or great bodily harm. For other definitions used, see https://www.dps.texas.gov/sites/default/files/ documents/crimereports/18/appendices.pdf. PERCEPTION OF CRIME AND SAFETY AS THE “BIGGEST PROBLEM” DECLINED STEADILY UNTIL 2021, EVEN WHEN CRIME RATES ROSE SLIGHTLY AFTER 2018. FIGURE 2 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 2,500 2,750 3,000 3,250 3,500 3,750 4,000 4,250 4,500 4,750 5,000 2015201620172018201920202021202220232024 Percentage of respondents Incidents per 100,000 residents Harris County crime rate% citing crime and safety as "biggest problem" Total crime rate combines homicide, assault, rape, robbery, burglary, auto theft, and larceny reported for the calendar year. Source: Harris County Index-Crimes Dashboard THE 43RD KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY: HOUSTON OF TOMORROW8 HOUSTON PAST AND PRESENT Ratings of local law enforcement differed across neighborhood areas around the city and coun- ty (Map 3). Six neighborhoods had fewer than 10% of residents rate law enforcement as “poor”: Greater Tomball & Klein; Greater Crosby & Huffman; Greater Cypress South & Copperfield; The Heights & Lazybrook; La Porte